The Economic Index Suggests Continued Moderate Growth In the U.S. Economy During Second Half of 2018
Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index stands at 118 in July 2018, a 3-point increase from the same time period a year ago. The overall trend of the Economic Index indicates that U.S. economic growth is continuing and that the second half of 2018 and the beginning of 2019 will also show economic improvement. The Economic Index tends to lead overall U.S. economic activity by 6 to 12 months. Below is the past-10-year history of the U.S. Economic Index.
“The U.S. Economic Index continues to signal growth, but it will probably be at a slower rate than the 4.1% GDP growth in the second quarter of 2018. The barriers to further growth are the disruption and chaos caused by tariffs and threats of tariffs. Many U.S. businesses don’t know which way to turn—until U.S. governmental policy becomes more understandable and more predictable. Rising interest rates and the growing mountain of corporate and governmental debts are also barriers to higher rates of economic growth,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “Looking forward, the economic picture is not sanguine, and the risks of recession are rising.”
The Mountain and the West South Central Census Divisions saw declines in the past 12 months, while the Middle Atlantic Census Division saw no change. The South Atlantic Census Division had the highest score in July 2018 at 118, an increase of 3 points in the past 12 months. The West North Central and East South Central Census Divisions each had an Index of 117. The New England Census Division had the weakest scores in the U.S. in July 2018, with a score of 113.
The following chart compares the U.S. Economic Index to Decision Analyst’s Economic Indices for other countries. The Economic Indices for all European countries are less than the U.S. Economic Index, and several countries in Europe are seeing declines in their Indices. Spain has declined 3 points in the past 12 months, while France has declined 2 points. Italy has increased by 2 points in the past 12 months. In South America, Brazil has increased by 6 points in the past 12 months, while Argentina has declined by 6 points. The major countries tracked by Decision Analyst are shown below.
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly online survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The scientific survey is conducted in the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated from 9 different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of coming economic activity in each country surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective countries.
Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Peru, the Russian Federation, Spain, and the United States. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 90 to 110 suggests a no-growth or slow-growth economy, and near or below 90 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development, advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. For over 40 years, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical, and automotive industries.
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