Conceptor® Volumetric Forecasting
Many new products and services that could be successful are abandoned before they are ever launched.Some new products are introduced with great fanfare—and soon become damaging and costly failures. Accurate forecasting of new products is essential to a company's growth and profitability.
Product category experience includes:
- Consumer packaged goods
- Consumer durables
- Over-the-counter (OTC) medicines
- Ethical pharmaceuticals
- Business-to-business (B2B) products
Conceptor® Volumetric Forecasting Model
The Conceptor® volumetric forecasting model provides accurate and comprehensive estimates of year-one sales. Conceptor® incorporates the following variables:
- Client Marketing Inputs. Detailed data about distribution levels, strength of sales organization, packaging variables, pricing, advertising expenditures and/or advertising gross rating points (GRP's), promotion plans, etc.
- Advertising. The SellingPower™ scores from CopyTest® advertising effectiveness research or from PackageTest® for nonadvertised brands.
- Trial. Scores from our ConceptTest® system are fed into the Conceptor® simulation model to predict the "trial" curve.
- Repeat-Purchase Rate. The repeat-purchase rate is calculated based on results from ConceptTest® and variables from Optima® product tests. In the absence of product-testing data, category averages are entered.
- Calibration. We calibrate the Conceptor® models for each client company. Historical data from a client's previous new product introductions (past five years) are sought. Calibration of our models helps ensure the most accurate forecasts possible.
The Conceptor® volumetric forecast is typically presented as year-one retail depletions in units and dollars. Trial volume is reported separately from repeat volume for short-cycle products. Conceptor® sales forecasts are generally accurate within plus or minus 25% for concept testing alone, or plus or minus 15% with the addition of Optima® product testing.
Volumetric forecasts can be prepared for any country. To ensure accuracy of each country’s forecast and take into account cultural and economic differences, concept tests and product tests must be conducted in each country.
The more realistic the experimental stimuli, the more accurate the results. That is why we often recommend Logician® Simulated Shopping with 3D animation for volumetric forecasting projects. We can create 3D shopping environments that take consumers on a realistic online visit to a retail store, expose then to advertising and promotional stimuli, and allow them to purchase products with the click of the mouse. 3D models can be created for lawn mowers, cell phones, cars, etc., that permit consumers to see a product from many visual perspectives.
Analytical Consulting Services
Decision Analyst is a global marketing research and analytical consulting firm with over 35 years of experience in state-of-the-art modeling, simulation, and optimization. A team of Ph.D.’s heads up Decision Analyst’s choice modeling work. They also publish many white papers on advanced analytical methods and speak frequently at marketing research industry conferences. They program choice models in SAS, Sawtooth, and the R-Language.
If you would like more information or would like to discuss a possible project, please contact contact Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO (firstname.lastname@example.org), or Elizabeth Horn, Ph.D., Senior Vice President of Advanced Analytics (email@example.com), or call 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166.