U.S. Economic Index Indicates Continued Economic Expansion During 2018

Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index stands at 115 in March 2018, unchanged from the previous month. Year over year, however, the Economic Index is up 2 points. The overall trend of the Economic Index indicates continued economic expansion in the U.S. during 2018, but the pace of growth is likely to be modest. The Economic Index tends to lead overall U.S. economic activity by 6 to 12 months. Below is the past-10-year history of the U.S. Economic Index.

“The U.S. Economic Index is up 2 points over the past 12 months, an indicator of slow economic expansion in the U.S. throughout 2018,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “The greatest risks to the U.S. economy in coming months appear to be political, especially the danger of rising trade tariffs and the potential disruption of existing trade agreements such as NAFTA. Another major risk factor is the possibility of rising inflation, which would sap consumer purchasing power. Rising inflation would surely spur the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates, and that could dampen some economic activity. Asset bubbles (and there are several major ones) could pop and exert downward pressure on the U.S. economy. On the other side of the ledger, the recently enacted tax cut will certainly serve as a stimulus to the economy,” said Thomas, “and interest rates are still very low by historical standards, another positive. Growing economic strength in the European Union is another indicator of continued U.S. economic growth.”

Census Divisions

The Pacific Census Division was the only division to see a decline in the past 12 months; all other divisions saw an increase. The South Atlantic Census Division has the highest score in March 2018 with a 119, which is an increase of 5 points in the past 12 months. The West North Central Census Division has an index of 117, which is also an increase of 5 points in the past 12 months. The New England and Pacific Census Divisions tied for the lowest score in March 2018, each with a 113.

 

Global Index

The following chart compares the U.S. Economic Index to Decision Analyst’s Economic Indices for other countries. Brazil increased by 7 points in the past 12 months, while Colombia decreased by 4 points. Meanwhile, in Europe, Spain increased by 5 points, while Germany increased by 4 points. The UK declined by 2 points in the past 12 months.

 

Methodology

The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly online survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The scientific survey is conducted in the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated from 9 different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of coming economic activity in each country surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective countries.

Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Peru, the Russian Federation, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 90 to 110 suggests a no-growth or slow-growth economy, and near or below 90 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.

About Decision Analyst

Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development, advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. For over 35 years, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical, and automotive industries.

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