U.S. Recovery Moving Forward, According to Decision Analyst's Economic Index
Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index registered 107 in July 2015, the same score as June 2015, but a 4-point increase over the past-12 months. The U.S. Economic Index for July continues to signal economic growth—but slow growth. The Economic Index tends to lead U.S. economic activity by 6 to 12 months. Below is the past-10-year history of the U.S. Economic Index.
“The U.S. Economic Index has been relatively flat over the past 9 months, a signal of slow economic growth in the U.S. for the balance of 2015 and into 2016,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. The ongoing decline in the price of commodities is hurting some countries and some industries, but it will tend to be a stimulus to the overall world economy in coming months. Economic weakness in China and parts of Europe, however, are negative for the world economy and negative for the U.S. since the U.S. is a major exporter to these regions. The strength of the dollar is also slowing U.S. exports, a negative on the U.S. economy. Without a major focus on economic growth by policy makers, the U.S. (and perhaps the world economy) are trapped in a slow-growth mode for the foreseeable future,” said Thomas.
The South Atlantic Census Division has an Economic Index score of 111 for July 2015, which is an increase of 7 points over the past-12 months. The East South Central Census Division has the lowest Economic Index score of 101 for July 2015; a decline to 2 points from a year ago.
In Europe, Spain increased 5 points, followed by Germany, which increased 4 points. Russia’s Economic Index, however, is down 9 points over the past year. In South America, Brazil’s Economic Index has declined 23 points in the past year, while Argentina has increased 5 points. The Economic Index for each country tends to lead economic activity in each country by 6 to 12 months.
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly online survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The scientific survey is conducted in the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated from 9 different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of coming economic activity in each country surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective countries.
Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Peru, the Russian Federation, Spain, United Kingdom, and the United States. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 90 to 110 suggests a no-growth or slow-growth economy, and near or below 90 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development, advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. For over 35 years, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical, and automotive industries.
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