The Long Economic Recovery as Shown in Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index
Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index registered 107 in January 2015. In the 6 years since the trough of the recession in the United States (January/February 2009), the U.S. Economic Index has increased 22 points and is nearing its prerecession level of 112 (January 2005). The economic recovery in the U.S. appears to be “on track,” and the U.S. economy is likely to continue to grow in 2015. The Economic Index tends to lead U.S. economic activity by 6 to 12 months. The Index’s history is shown below.
“While the U.S. Economic Index is signaling continued economic growth in the U.S. in 2015, weaknesses in the world economy might dampen down the rate of U.S. growth. Depressed oil and gasoline prices are a huge stimulus to the U.S. and the world economy, if energy prices remain at low levels. But the energy positives are partially offset by structural economic problems in Europe and a weakening economy in China. Falling commodity prices are also hurting economic prospects in the Mideast and Latin America,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “Taking all factors into account, the U.S. economy will likely muddle along at a slow pace in 2015, as it has for the past 6 years.”
The New England Census Division increased 27 points, from a score of 83 in January 2009 to 110 for January 2015 (that is the highest increase for the census divisions since the bottom of the recession). The East South Central Census Division increased from 87 in January 2009 to 103 in January 2015, which is the lowest increase of all the U.S. Census divisions.
The following table compares Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index to its Economic Indices for other countries. In comparing how the Indices have changed in the past 6 years, the United States Economic Index has increased the most, going from 85 in January 2009 to 107 in January 2015. India increased 21 points, from 107 in January 2009 to 128 in January 2015, and the United Kingdom increased 20 points, from 85 in January 2009 to 105 in January 2015. Brazil had the lowest increase in its index, only going up one point, from 106 in January 2009 to 107 in January 2015. No country saw a decrease in its Economic Index across the past six years. The Economic Index for each country tends to lead economic activity in each country by 6 to 12 months.
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly online survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The scientific survey is conducted in the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated from 9 different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of coming economic activity in each country surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective countries.
Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Peru, the Russian Federation, Spain, United Kingdom, and the United States. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 90 to 110 suggests a no-growth or slow-growth economy, and near or below 90 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development, advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. For over 35 years, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in the consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical, and automotive industries.
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