The U.S. Economic Index Indicates Slow Economic Growth in June
The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index reached 117 in June 2019, an increase of 2 points from the previous month. Over the past 12 months, the U.S. Economic Index only increased 2 points from June 2018. The overall trend of the Economic Index over the last 2 years is relatively flat, an indication of slow economic growth during the second half of 2019. The Economic Index tends to lead overall U.S. economic activity by 6 to 12 months. Below is the past-20-year history of the U.S. Economic Index.
“The overall pattern of the U.S. Economic Index over the past 24 months indicates slow economic growth is ahead for the U.S. economy during the balance of 2019. It’s really difficult to read the economic indices because of distortions in the U.S. economy related to tariffs and trade disputes. That is, the rapid changes in trade policies and rules are prompting some short-term business activity (buying of inventories in advance of tariffs, for example) that look like positive economic numbers in the short-term, but could become negative factors in the future. So, the economy might not be doing as well as some of the concurrent data suggests. Of greater import for the future is the complete lack of any coherent trade or economic development strategy for the U.S. economy, or any sensible plan to resolve the many trade disputes. On a positive note, two of our major trading partners (Canada and Mexico) both appear to be doing reasonably well, so that helps the underpinnings of the U.S. economy. Slow growth appears to be our destiny for the foreseeable future.”
The West North Central Census Division increased 5 points in the past 12 months. Meanwhile, the Mountain Census Division declined 4 points in the past 12 months and the Middle Atlantic Census Division declined 3 points. The East South Central Census Division remains unchanged over the past 12 months.
The following chart compares the U.S. Economic Index to Decision Analyst’s Economic Indices for other countries. In South America, Brazil increased 5 points in the past 12 months; while Colombia increase 2 points. Chile declined 7 points and Argentina declined 6 points. In Europe, Germany increased by 4 points in the past 12 months, and Italy decreased 4 points. Some of the major countries tracked by Decision Analyst are shown below.
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly online survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The scientific survey is conducted in the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated from 9 different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of coming economic activity in each country surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective countries.
Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month in Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Peru, the Russian Federation, Spain, and the United States. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 90 to 110 suggests a no-growth or slow-growth economy, and near or below 90 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development, advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. For over 40 years, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical, and automotive industries.
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Interactive Economic Index
Click on the map above to open Decision Analyst's Interactive Map for the United States and its nine census divisions.
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