Decision Analyst’s Economic Index U.S. Census Divisions May 2018
Arlington, Texas—The Mountain Census Division was the only division to see a decline in the past 12 months, while the West South Central Division stayed the same. The East South Central Census Division had the highest score in May 2018 with a 118, which was an increase of 5 points in the past 12 months. The South Atlantic Census Division had an Index of 117, an increase of 4 points in the past 12 months. The New England Census Division had the lowest score in May 2018 with a score of 112.
United States Economic Index
The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index stands at 116 in May 2018, the same score as last month. However, the U.S. Economic Index score is up 2 points over the past 12 months. The overall trend of the Economic Index continues to indicate that the U.S. economy will continue to expand throughout 2018. The Economic Index tends to lead overall U.S. economic activity by 6 to 12 months. Below is the past-10-year history of the U.S. Economic Index.
“The U.S. Economic Index is at a reasonably high level and is up 2 points over the past 12 months. Both of these facts indicate that the U.S. economy will continue to expand throughout 2018,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “The economic picture is not entirely sanguine, however. Inflation is beginning to show its ugly face, and the threats of trade wars and rising tariffs promise to exacerbate the U.S. inflation rate. The likely disruption to major trading agreements (NAFTA, for example) poses severe risks to U.S. economy activity. Rising U.S. interest rates could also pop U.S. asset bubbles (stock prices, real estate, etc.) and trigger a rapid downturn. These threats to the U.S. economy are likely to offset some of the potential benefits from the recent federal tax cuts. Economic slowdowns in several European economies, as well as the possibility of recession in China, loom as potential negatives for the U.S. economy. Somewhere in the next 12-24 months, a recession lurks in the shadows.”
The division-by-division results are presented in the graphs below. Remember, the Census Division graphs portray 3-month moving averages.
*Census Division Three-Month Moving Average
The Index numbers for the census divisions are three-month moving averages to smooth out fluctuations due to smaller sample sizes. The reported Index number averages the current month with the two previous months.
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly online survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The scientific survey is conducted in the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated from 9 different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of coming economic activity in each country surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective countries.
Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Peru, the Russian Federation, Spain, United Kingdom, and the United States. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 90 to 110 suggests a no-growth or slow-growth economy, and near or below 90 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development, advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. For over 35 years, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical, and automotive industries.
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Interactive Economic Index
Click on the map above to open Decision Analyst's Interactive Map for the United States and its nine census divisions.
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