U.S. Economic Index Indicates Continued Economic Growth During 2018
Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index stands at 116 in April 2018, an increase of 1 point from the previous month. The Economic Index is up 5 points from April 2017. The overall trend of the Economic Index indicates continued near-term economic expansion in the U.S., but the pace of growth is likely to be modest. The Economic Index tends to lead overall U.S. economic activity by 6 to 12 months. Below is the past-10-year history of the U.S. Economic Index.
“The U.S. Economic Index is up 5 points over the past 12 months, an indicator of continued economic expansion in the U.S. throughout 2018,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “The greatest risks to the U.S. economy in coming months appear to be political, especially the danger of rising trade tariffs and the potential disruption of existing trade agreements such as NAFTA. Another growing risk factor is rising inflation, which would sap consumer purchasing power, and rising inflation would surely spur the Federal Reserve to stick to its promised interest rate increases in 2018. Rising rates would dampen some economic activity. Asset bubbles (and there are several major ones) could burst and exert downward pressure on the U.S. economy. On the other side of the ledger, the recently enacted tax cut and the recently approved fiscal stimulus will stimulate the economy. The risks of recession are increasing, however,” said Thomas.
The Mountain Census Division was the only division to see a decline in the past 12 months; all other divisions saw an increase. The East South Central Census Division had the highest score in April 2018 with a 118, which was an increase of 7 points in the past 12 months. The South Atlantic Census Division had an Index of 117, which was an increase of 5 points in the past 12 months. The New England and Mountain Census Divisions tied for the lowest score in April 2018, each with a score of 112.
The following chart compares the U.S. Economic Index to Decision Analyst’s Economic Indices for other countries. Brazil increased by 11 points in the past 12 months, and Chile increased by 8 points. Colombia decreased by 7 points. In Europe, Germany increased by 8 points, and the U.K. increased by 7 points. Spain saw no change in the past 12 months. Both, Australia and India increased 2 points in the past 12 months.
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly online survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The scientific survey is conducted in the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated from 9 different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of coming economic activity in each country surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective countries.
Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Peru, the Russian Federation, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 90 to 110 suggests a no-growth or slow-growth economy, and near or below 90 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development, advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. For over 35 years, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical, and automotive industries.
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