U.S. Economy Maintains Moderate Economic Expansion, According To Decision Analyst’s Economic Index
Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index stood at 117 in October 2017, a 2-point increase from September 2017 and a 5-point increase from its October 2016 level. The past-12-month slope of the Economic Index indicates that the U.S. economy is likely to expand throughout 2017 and the first half of 2018. The Economic Index tends to lead U.S. economic activity by 6 to 12 months. Below is the past-10-year history of the U.S. Economic Index.
“The U.S. Economic Index is up 5 points over the past 12 months, an indication of moderate economic expansion and an indicator of continued GDP growth,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “The greatest risks to the U.S. economy currently, and in coming months, are political uncertainties in Washington, D.C. Large corporations in industry after industry are afraid to make major decisions or investments, because they don’t know what the regulatory policies will be in coming months. This political uncertainty is casting a chill over corporate America. At the same time, ultra low interest rates and quantitative easing have created bubbles in the U.S. economy that pose great risks. The U.S. Economic Index points to continued growth, but the risks are growing also,” said Thomas.
The Economic Indices for the U.S. Census Divisions have increased in the past 12 months. The East North Central Census Division has the highest score, with an Index of 119 for October 2017, while the West North Central Division has a score of 117. The South Atlantic Census Division had the lowest Index score, 113 for October 2017.
The following chart compares Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index to its Economic Indices for other countries. France increased 7 points in the past 12 months, while the Russian Federation increased 5 points. In South America, Chile increased 11 points in the past 12 months, while Argentina increased 9 points. The only countries to decline in the past 12 months are India (decreased 3 points), Germany (decreased 1 point), and Peru (decreased 1 point).
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly online survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The scientific survey is conducted in the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated from 9 different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of coming economic activity in each country surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective countries.
Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Peru, the Russian Federation, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 90 to 110 suggests a no-growth or slow-growth economy, and near or below 90 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development, advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. For over 35 years, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical, and automotive industries.
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