U.S. Economic Growth to Continue, According To Decision Analyst’s Economic Index
Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index stood at 114 in August 2017, a 1-point decrease from July 2017, but a 4-point increase from its August 2016 level. The past-12-month slope of the Economic Index is trending upwards, indicating that the U.S. economy is likely to expand throughout 2017 and the first half of 2018. The Economic Index tends to lead U.S. economic activity by 6 to 12 months. Below is the past-10-year history of the U.S. Economic Index.
“The U.S. Economic Index is up 4 points over the past 12 months, an indication of moderate economic expansion and an indicator of continued GDP growth throughout 2017 and into 2018,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “The greatest risks to the overall U.S. economy during the next 6 to 12 months are political risks and financial system risks related to ultra low interest rates and quantitative easing. International trade disruptions are also a major risk factor. The falling dollar, on the other hand, is boosting exports and serving as an economic stimulus, and low energy costs are a continuing stimulus. The European economy is doing well, and Japan is finally showing some positive numbers. Right now the positive forces seem to be prevailing, but the risks to the U.S. economy are significant,” said Thomas.
The Economic Indices for the U.S. Census Divisions have all stayed the same in the past 12 months. The West North Central and the East North Central Census Divisions have the highest scores of all the Census Divisions, each with an Index score of 117 for August 2017, and the East North Central had the largest increase over the past 12 months, increasing 8 points. The East South Central had the lowest Index score, 107 for August 2017.
The following chart compares Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index to its Economic Indices for other countries. Chile and Brazil both increased 11 points in the past 12 months, while Argentina increased 6 points; however, Colombia declined 5 points in the past 12 months, and Peru declined 3 points. In Europe, France had the largest gain, at 8 points, while both Spain and the Russian Federation both increased 5 points over the past 12 months. The United Kingdom declined 14 points in the past 12 months.ding upwards, indicating that the U.S. economy is likely to expand throughout 2017 and the first half of 2018. The Economic Index tends to lead U.S. economic activity by 6 to 12 months. Below is the past-10-year history of the U.S. Economic Index.
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly online survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The scientific survey is conducted in the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated from 9 different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of coming economic activity in each country surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective countries.
Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Peru, the Russian Federation, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 90 to 110 suggests a no-growth or slow-growth economy, and near or below 90 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development, advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. For over 35 years, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical, and automotive industries.
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