U.S. Economy Continues Its Slow, Upward March, According To Decision Analyst’s Economic Index
Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index stood at 113 in March 2017, a 5-point increase from March 2016. This year-over-year strengthening in the U.S. Economic Index signals continued U.S. economic growth for the remaining months of 2017. The Economic Index tends to lead U.S. economic activity by 6 to 12 months. Below is the past-10-year history of the U.S. Economic Index.
“The overall trend of the U.S. Economic Index over the past year indicates that 2017 is off to a positive start, with a high likelihood that economic expansion will continue through most of 2017,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “However, the change of political power in Washington, D.C., carries with it risks of economic distractions and turmoil. If President Trump’s talk and actions cause disruptions in the flow of imports and exports (including visitors and tourists), that could have major negative effects on the U.S. economy. Possible disruption of the healthcare industry related to efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act also carries economic risks. We continue to believe that higher rates of interest would be good for the U.S. economy long-term,” said Thomas. “More normal interest rates would help reduce corporate financial engineering, help deflate the huge private equity/venture capital bubble, and reduce speculation and speculative investments in general.”
The Economic Indices for the U.S. Census Divisions have increased in the past 12 months. The Middle Atlantic Division had the highest score of all the Census Divisions, with an Index score of 115 for March 2017. The South Atlantic and the Pacific Divisions each scored 114 for March 2017. The New England Division had the lowest Index score, 109 for March 2017.
The following chart compares Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index to its Economic Indices for other countries. Globally, most countries are moving in a positive direction, including most countries in South America. Brazil increased 14 points in the past 12 months, while Argentina and Colombia each increased 8 points. In Europe, France increased 11 points in the past 12 months, and the Russian Federation increased 10 points. Spain is the only major European country showing a meaningful decline (minus 6 points).
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly online survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The scientific survey is conducted in the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated from 9 different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of coming economic activity in each country surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective countries.
Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Peru, the Russian Federation, Spain, United Kingdom, and the United States. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 90 to 110 suggests a no-growth or slow-growth economy, and near or below 90 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development, advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. For over 35 years, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical, and automotive industries.
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Click on the map above to open Decision Analyst's Interactive Map for the United States and its nine census divisions.
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