Decision Analyst’s Global Economic Indices August 2016
Arlington, Texas—The following charts and graphs compare Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index to its Economic Indices for other countries. South America is in trouble. Brazil has been in a free fall for the past 2 years, and Venezuela (not shown) is an economic trainwreck. Argentina has declined by 6 points and Chile has declined by 7 points in the past 12 months, and Colombia and Peru have also declined. There are glimmers of hope in Europe. The Economic Indices in Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom are trending up, and the initial impact of Brexit on the U.K. appears to be minimal.
The Decision Analyst Economic Indices are based on monthly online surveys in the respective countries; these surveys provide inputs to Decision Analyst’s econometric models that compute the Economic Indices for each country.
Three-Month Moving Average
The Index numbers for Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, India, Mexico, Peru, the Russian Federation, and Spain are 3-month moving averages to smooth out month-to-month fluctuations. The reported Index number averages the current month with the 2 previous months.
Prior to July 2013, the Index numbers for Germany were a 3-month moving average. Starting in July 2013, the Index score reported for Germany are the actual monthly numbers.
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly online survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The scientific survey is conducted in the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated from 9 different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of coming economic activity in each country surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective countries.
Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Peru, the Russian Federation, Spain, United Kingdom, and the United States. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 90 to 110 suggests a no-growth or slow-growth economy, and near or below 90 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development, advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. For over 35 years, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical, and automotive industries.
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