After A Sluggish Start To 2016, The U.S. Economy Might Be Ready To Pick Up The Pace, According To Decision Analyst’s Economic Index
Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index registered 111 in July 2016, a 2-point increase from June 2016 and a 4-point increase from July 2015. These increases signal continued U.S. economic growth for the rest of 2016, and perhaps indicate an improvement in the pace of U.S. growth. This is a happy prospect, after 3 consecutive quarters of extremely slow expansion. The Economic Index tends to lead U.S. economic activity by 6 to 12 months. Below is the past-10-year history of the U.S. Economic Index.
“The overall trend of the U.S. Economic Index over the past year suggests that the balance of 2016 will likely show an uptick in the rate of economic growth,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “All of the negative feelings and pessimism over presidential candidates Clinton and Trump do not appear to be negatively affecting the U.S. economy. The U.S. economy is certainly facing major headwinds: recession in Canada and Japan, feeble growth in the European Union and slowing growth in China, a stronger U.S. dollar and its effects on exports, inadequate capital spending by U.S. companies, and low interest rates that encourage speculative investments in marginal opportunities. However, the slow economic growth itself over the last two years has forced the private and public sectors to become more efficient. It may be time for these ongoing microimprovements to become evident in faster economic growth,” said Thomas.
The U.S. Census Divisions are not all moving in the same direction. In the past 12 months, the Mountain Census Division increased 8 points, from 106 in July 2015 to 114 in July 2016. The Pacific Census Division increased 6 points, from 107 in July 2015 to 113 in July 2016. Meanwhile, the West South Central Census Division decreased 3 points, from 110 in July 2015 to 107 in July 2016.
The following chart compares Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index to the Economic Indices for other countries. Globally, more countries are showing declines in the past 12 months than are showing increases.
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly online survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The scientific survey is conducted in the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated from 9 different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of coming economic activity in each country surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective countries.
Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Peru, the Russian Federation, Spain, United Kingdom, and the United States. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 90 to 110 suggests a no-growth or slow-growth economy, and near or below 90 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development, advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. For over 35 years, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical, and automotive industries.
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Click on the map above to open Decision Analyst's Interactive Map for the United States and its nine census divisions.
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