U.S. Economy Ending the Year With Uptick, According to Decision Analyst's Economic Index
Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index registered 108 in November 2015, a 1-point increase from October 2015. This is the second month in a row with an increase, so the Economic Index is indicating a lower risk of recession. The Economic Index tends to lead U.S. economic activity by 6 to 12 months. Below is the past-10-year history of the U.S. Economic Index.
“The U.S. economy has shown some signs of life in late 2015. The Index indicates slow and steady economic growth in coming months for the U.S. One of the major drags on the U.S. economy is the stagnation of median household incomes since the year 2000. A majority of U.S. households are earning less in real dollars than they were 15 years ago, resulting in a demand deficit. As a result of fewer real dollars in the consumer’s pockets, Walmart, Target, other retailers and consumer goods companies are finding it extremely difficult to grow nominal sales (actual sales in current dollars). A factor in stagnant household incomes is the declining share of U.S. adults that are participating in the workforce,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “The final drag on the U.S. economy is a weak worldwide economy. Thus, the U.S. appears to be locked in a pattern of slow to no growth,” said Thomas.
In the past 12 months the East South Central Division has gained the most of all the U.S. Census Divisions, increasing 5 points from 97 in November 2014 to 102 in November 2015. Both the West North Central and the West South Central Census Divisions saw declines over the past 12 months. The West North Central Census Division decreased from 107 in November 2014 to 106 in November 2015, while the West South Central Census Division decreased from 108 in November 2014 to 107 in November 2015.
The following table compares Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index to its Economic Indices for other countries.
In Europe, Germany surged ahead, with an increase of 8 points from 102 in November 2014 to 110 in November 2015. Meanwhile, France, feeling the effects of the recent terrorist attacks, declined 7 points from 88 in November 2014 to 81 in November 2015. In Asia, India decreased 8 points in the past 12 months, falling from 90 in November 2014 to 82 in November 2015.
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly online survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The scientific survey is conducted in the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated from 9 different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of coming economic activity in each country surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective countries.
Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Peru, the Russian Federation, Spain, United Kingdom, and the United States. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 90 to 110 suggests a no-growth or slow-growth economy, and near or below 90 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development, advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. For over 35 years, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical, and automotive industries.
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