U.S. Economy Moves Sideways for April According to Decision Analyst’s Economic Index
Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index registered 108 in April 2015. This is the third month in a row the U.S. Economic Index registered a 108; over the past 12 months the U.S. Economic Index has increased 6 points. The U.S. economic recovery appears to be on track and moving slowly upward. The Economic Index tends to lead U.S. economic activity by 6 to 12 months. The U.S. Economic Index’s history is shown below.
“The U.S. Economic Index has moved sideways for the past 3 months; it appears that the economy is merely taking a breather before continuing its long slow recovery. Depressed oil and gasoline prices are providing significant stimulus to the U.S. economy, especially the consumer part of the economy. If energy prices remain low, then the U.S. economy will continue to expand for the balance of 2015,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “Europe is showing some signs of possible economic acceleration in some countries this year, but the debt problems in Greece and political instability in Ukraine are drags on the European economy.”
The West North Central Census Division has an Index of 113 for April 2015, which is an increase of 8 points over the course of the past 12 months. The Pacific and the New England Census Divisions each have an Economic Index of 104 for April 2015 (they are tied for lowest Index of all the U.S. Census Divisions), and each also increased 2 points over the past 12 months.
The following table compares Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index to its Economic Indices for other countries. In South America, Brazil’s Economic Index has declined 20 points in the past year, while Argentina increased 9 points. In Europe, the Economic Index is trending up in most of the major countries, signaling economic expansion in Europe for the remainder of the year. Russia’s Economic Index, however, is down 7 points over the past year. The Economic Index for each country tends to lead economic activity in each country by 6 to 12 months.
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly online survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The scientific survey is conducted in the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated from 9 different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of coming economic activity in each country surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective countries.
Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Peru, the Russian Federation, Spain, United Kingdom, and the United States. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 90 to 110 suggests a no-growth or slow-growth economy, and near or below 90 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development, advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. For over 35 years, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical, and automotive industries.
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