The U.S. Economy Continues Its Recovery According to Decision Analyst's Economic Index
Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index registered 108 in February 2015. In the past 12 months the U.S. Index has increased 5 points. The U.S. economic recovery is likely to continue its slow upward trend throughout 2015, given that the Economic Index tends to lead U.S. economic activity by 6 to 12 months. The Index’s history is shown below.
“The uptrend in the U.S. economy has been consistent over the past four years, and it appears likely to continue its slow upward march for the balance of 2015. Employment growth in the U.S. has been impressive in recent months, and the depressed prices of oil and gasoline are pervading stimuli to the whole U.S. economy. If energy prices remain low, continued expansion of the U.S. economy in 2015 is almost certain. The economic uncertainties related to Greece, Ukraine, and Russia are retardants to European economic expansion this year, but Europe may surprise us on the upside,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “The European Economic Indices are pointing toward economic expansion in Europe over the remainder of 2015.”
The West North Central Census Division has an Index of 113 for February 2015, which is an increase of 10 points over the course of the past 12 months. The East South Central Census Division has an Economic Index, with a score of 105 for February 2015, which is the lowest Index of all the U.S. Census divisions.
The following table compares Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index to its Economic Indices for other countries. In South America, most of the trends are negative, with Brazil’s Economic Index down 13 points in the past year. Columbia is the one exception, with its Economic Index up four points over past 12 months. In Europe, the Economic Index is trending up in most of the major countries, and signaling economic expansion in Europe for the remainder of the year. Russia’s Economic Index, however, is down nine points over the past year. The Economic Index for each country tends to lead economic activity in each country by 6 to 12 months.
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly online survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The scientific survey is conducted in the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated from 9 different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of coming economic activity in each country surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective countries.
Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Peru, the Russian Federation, Spain, United Kingdom, and the United States. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 90 to 110 suggests a no-growth or slow-growth economy, and near or below 90 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development, advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. For over 35 years, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in the consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical, and automotive industries.
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