Decision Analyst’s Global Economic Indices January 2015
Arlington, Texas—The following table compares Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index to its Economic Indices for other countries. In comparing how the Indices have changed in the past 6 years, the United States Economic Index has increased 22 points, going from 85 in January 2009 to 107 in January 2015. India increased 21 points, from 107 in January 2009 to 128 in January 2015, and the United Kingdom increased 20 points, from 85 in January 2009 to 105 in January 2015. The Economic Index for each country tends to lead economic activity in each country by 6 to 12 months.
The Decision Analyst Economic Indices are based on online surveys in the respective countries, which provide input to Decision Analyst’s econometric models used to compute the Indices. The lowest point for the Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index occurred in January and February 2009, marking the bottom of the recession. So for this month we included a past-6-year change to show how each countries’ individual scores have changed from January 2009 to January 2015.
Three-Month Moving Average
The Index numbers for Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, India, Mexico, Peru, the Russian Federation, and Spain are 3-month moving averages to smooth out month-to-month fluctuations. The reported Index number averages the current month with the 2 previous months.
Prior to July 2013, the Index numbers for Germany were a 3-month moving average. Starting in July 2013, the Index score reported for Germany are the actual monthly numbers.
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly online survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The scientific survey is conducted in the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated from 9 different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of coming economic activity in each country surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective countries.
Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Peru, the Russian Federation, Spain, United Kingdom, and the United States. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 90 to 110 suggests a no-growth or slow-growth economy, and near or below 90 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development, advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. For over 35 years, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical, and automotive industries.
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