Decision Analyst’s Economic Index U.S. Census Divisions January 2015

Arlington, Texas—The New England Census Division increased 27 points; from a score of 83 in January 2009 to 110 for January 2015 (that is the highest increase for the census divisions since the bottom of the recession). The East South Central Census Division increased from 87 in January 2009 to 103 in January 2015, which is the lowest increase of all the U.S. Census divisions.

 

Past-6-Year Change: The lowest point for the Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index occurred in January and February 2009, marking the bottom of the recession. So for this month we decided to include a past-6-year change to show how each divisions’ individual scores have changed from January 2009 to January 2015.

United States Economic Index

The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index registered 107 in January 2015. In the six years since the trough of the recession in the United States (January/February 2009), the U.S. Economic Index has increased 22 points and is nearing its prerecession level of 112 (January 2005). The economic recovery in the U.S. appears to be “on track,” and the U.S. economy is likely to continue to grow in 2015. The Economic Index tends to lead U.S. economic activity by 6 to 12 months. The Index’s history is shown below.

“While the U.S. Economic Index is signaling continued economic growth in the U.S. in 2015, weaknesses in the world economy might dampen down the rate of U.S. growth. Depressed oil and gasoline prices are a huge stimulus to the U.S. and the world economy, if energy prices remain at low levels. But the energy positives are partially offset by structural economic problems in Europe and a weakening economy in China. Falling commodity prices are also hurting economic prospects in the Mideast and Latin America,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “Taking all factors into account, the U.S. economy will likely muddle along at a slow pace in 2015, as it has for the past 6 years.”

Index History

The division-by-division results are presented in the graphs below. Remember, he Census Division graphs portray 3-month moving averages.

*Census Division Three-Month Moving Average

The Index numbers for the census divisions are three-month moving averages to smooth out fluctuations due to smaller sample sizes. The reported Index number averages the current month with the two previous months.

 

Methodology

The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly online survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The scientific survey is conducted in the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated from 9 different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of coming economic activity in each country surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective countries.

Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Peru, the Russian Federation, Spain, United Kingdom, and the United States. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 90 to 110 suggests a no-growth or slow-growth economy, and near or below 90 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.

About Decision Analyst

Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development, advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. For over 35 years, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical, and automotive industries.

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