Measurements

The Index itself is calculated from nine different economic measurements, using a sophisticated econometric model. The nine measures are:

• Expected trend for stocks and mutual funds over the next six months
• Availability of new jobs in region
• Price trends for goods and services
• Respondents' employment status
• Expectations of layoffs and staff reductions at place of employment
• Changes in staffing levels at place of work
• Estimate of current level of business activity at place of work
• Credit availability (relationship of spending to available credit limits)
• Purchase intent over next 12 months for high-ticket items

Interpreting The Index

Although the Economic Index is not a precise measure of absolute economic activity, it is nonetheless a remarkably powerful tool for understanding and predicting the economy. With its emphasis on measuring consumer opinions and perceptions, it provides genuine insight into that great intangible behind economic growth—confidence. There are two ways of interpreting the Economic Index. First, its "direction"—whether it is rising or falling. Second, the values themselves provide a reliable guide—when the Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a stagnant economy, and below 100 generally indicates economic contraction.

Reports

The Index includes reports of the state of the consumer economy by country. The reports assess changes in the country’s economic index vis-à-vis the macroeconomic environment and will assess the likely future direction the economy appears to be taking.

Methodology

Tracking of the index began in May 1999 in the United States and Canada. It has expanded over the years and is currently tracked in 19 countries. The index is based on a monthly Internet survey balanced by gender, age, and geography to achieve nationally representative samples. These measures are compiled from an online survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The survey is conducted from the 20th to the 27th of each month, and the new Index value is calculated immediately thereafter. The data is collected via online survey from American Consumer Opinion® online panel.

The International Index

The Economic Index is conducted in:

Call or email Jerry W. Thomas at 1.817.640.6166 for more information.