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Release Archives | U.S. Census Division Economic Indices May 2012
Decision Analyst's U.S. Economic Index Holds Steady for May 2012;
The Mountain Census Division Increases
Arlington, Texas—Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index stayed at 99
during May 2012, the same score as in April 2012. The Mountain Division
increased 4 points from 95 in April 2012 to 99 in May 2012. The
Economic Index, however, has been trending up for the past 8 months, indicating
a positive trend for the U.S. economy for the remainder of 2012. The U.S. Economic
Index tends to anticipate overall economic activity by 6 to 12 months. The graphs
below show the Index for the U.S. and the Mountain Census Division, respectively:
“The recovery so far has been slow and halting as consumers
and businesses continue to be cautious and careful,” said Jerry W. Thomas,
President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “The U.S. Economy is still operating
at depressed levels, compared to the 2002-2007 time period (as shown in the 10-year
chart below). Falling oil prices and very inexpensive natural gas, however, will
be major stimulants to the U.S. economy in coming months, if energy prices remain
depressed. Also, the U.S. economy is gradually building positive momentum, as
cost savings and productivity improvements accumulate throughout the economy.
Geographically, all parts of the U.S. appear to be participating in the economy
recovery. The U.S. economy probably will continue to grow throughout 2012,”
according to Thomas, “assuming no major shocks to the world financial system.”
The West North Central and the West South Central Divisions are leading the
way with the highest scores of 100, while the East South Central
and the South Atlantic are lagging behind, with scores of 96
and 97, respectively. (See map below.)
The trends for the various census divisions tend to be similar overall, but
regional differences are evident. The East South Census Division was the only
division to decrease, going from 98 in April 2012 to 96 in May 2012.
The U.S. Economic Index and the division-by-division results for the past 10 years
are presented in the following graphs. Remember, the census division graphs portray
3-month moving averages.
Census Division Three-Month Moving Average
The Index numbers for the census divisions are three-month moving averages
to smooth out fluctuations due to smaller sample sizes. The reported Index number
averages the current month with the two previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model.
The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country surveyed,
as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective
countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month
in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany,
India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, the Russian Federation, Spain, United
Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and
analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development,
advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization.
For over 3 decades, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients
throughout the world in the consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail,
technology, medical, and automotive industries.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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