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Release Archives | International Economic Indices December 2011
For Immediate Release
January 5, 2012
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index Ends
2011 On A Humdrum Note;
Italy Ends The Year On A Decline
Arlington, Texas—Over the course of 2011, the Decision Analyst U.S. Economic
Index dipped 2 points from 95 in January 2011 to 93 in December 2011. For most
of 2011, the general trend of the U.S. Economic Index has been lateral, oscillating
between 93 and 95, with a minor dip in September to 89. Of the countries surveyed,
Italy had the largest drop in 2011, dropping 17 points from 92 in January 2011
to 75 in December 2011.
The sideways movement of the U.S. Index suggests continued economic weakness
in the first half of 2012 and probably the second half as well for the United
States. The large drop in Italy signals concerns for Italy and possibly the European
Union for 2012. The Decision Analyst Economic Indices are leading indicators for
their respective countries and tend to foreshadow overall economic activity by
6 to 12 months in each respective country.
“The Index for the past 12 months indicates an anemic economy, hovering
between recovery and a double-dip recession. The trend of the U.S. Index is suggesting
a very slowly expanding economy for 2012,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO
of Decision Analyst. “There are a few positive factors in the economy. Some
private companies are hiring, stock markets are relatively stable, and manufacturing
is up. However, unemployment (including discouraged workers) is high and underemployment
is still high. This in turn reduces consumer buying power and consumer confidence.
Lack of credit and lack of capital for small businesses are major barriers to
growth. High debt levels, public and private, are reducing the funds available
for spending and investment. Lastly, gridlock in Washington and indecision in
Europe are making major corporations reluctant to make strategic investments,”
said Thomas.
“The European Union continues to be storm-tossed,” said Thomas,
“as dark clouds of indebtedness hang over Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Greece,
and probably Italy and France. The European Union seems politically unable to
confront and resolve this growing financial storm.”
International Economic Indices
In Europe, Germany dropped 7 points from 109 in January 2011 to 102 in December
2011, while the UK only dropped 1 point from 81 in January 2011 to 80 in December
2011. In South America, Chile dropped an astounding 15 points from 113 in January
2011 to 98 in December 2011, meanwhile Colombia managed to increase 2 points (the
only country to see an increase) from 101 in January 2011 to 103 in December 2011.
The Decision Analyst Economic Indices for the individual countries for the past
10 years are below.
Three-Month Moving Average
The Index numbers for Argentina, Australia, Chile, China, Colombia, Germany,
Mexico, Peru, the Russian Federation, and Spain are a 3-month moving average to
smooth out month-to-month fluctuations. The reported Index number averages the
current month with the 2 previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model.
The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country surveyed,
as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective
countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month
in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany,
India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, the Russian Federation, Spain, United
Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and
analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development,
advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization.
For over 3 decades, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients
throughout the world in the consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail,
technology, medical, and automotive industries.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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