Home | Press Room | Press Release Archives | Economic Index December 2011

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For Immediate Release
January 5, 2012
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166

Arlington, Texas—Over the course of 2011, the Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index dipped 2 points from 95 in January 2011 to 93 in December 2011. For most of 2011, the general trend of the U.S. Economic Index has been a lateral movement oscillating between 93 and 95, with a minor dip in September to 89. The sideways movement of the Index suggests continued economic weakness in the first half of 2012 and probably the second half as well. The U.S. Economic Index tends to foreshadow overall economic activity by 6 to 12 months. The graphs below show the U.S. Economic Index for the past 3 years and past 10 years:

“The Index for the past 12 months indicates an anemic economy, hovering between recovery and a double-dip recession. The trend of the U.S. Index is suggesting a very slowly expanding economy for 2012,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “There are a few positive factors in the economy: private companies have slowly begun hiring, stocks have seen some improvements, and manufacturing is up. However, there are still major threats to the economy. Unemployment (including discouraged workers) and underemployment is still high, which in turn is reducing consumer buying power and consumer confidence. Lack of credit and lack of capital for small businesses are major barriers to growth. High debt levels, public and private, are also reducing the funds available for spending and investment. Lastly, uncertainty created by gridlock in Washington and indecision in Europe is making major corporations reluctant to make strategic investments,” said Thomas.

“The European Union remains less than robust,” said Thomas. “The clouds of financial stress hang over Europe as Ireland, Portugal, the U.K., Greece, and perhaps Italy and France struggle to deal with excessive debt and less than stellar economies.”

Census Divisions

The West South Central Division appears to have the strongest economy with an Index of 101. The South Atlantic and the Mountain Divisions appear to be the weakest—with both having a score of 90. (See map below.)

International Index

The table below compares the U.S. Economic Index to Decision Analyst’s Economic Indices for other countries. China, Brazil, and India appear to have the highest scores, while France, Italy, and Spain have the lowest scores. In Europe, Germany has the highest score of 102, while France is at the bottom with a score of 74. In South America, Argentina has the lowest Index with a score of 94.

Methodology

The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online survey is conducted in the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated from 9 different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, the Russian Federation, Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 90 to 110 suggests a no-growth or slow-growth economy, and near or below 90 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.

About Decision Analyst

Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development, advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. For over 3 decades, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in the consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical, and automotive industries.

For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011

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