Home | Press Room | Press Release Archives | Economic Index September 2011

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For Immediate Release
October 5, 2011
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166

Arlington, Texas—Chances of a double-dip recession increased as the Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index dropped from 93 in August 2011 to 89 in September 2011. This is the lowest the Index has been since March 2009 (which had an Index of 88). The Index has declined for the past 2 months, suggesting continued economic stagnation for the balance of 2011 and into the first half of 2012. The U.S. Economic Index is a leading indicator that tends to foreshadow overall economic activity by 6 to 12 months. Here is the U.S. Economic Index for the past 3 years:

Below is the U.S. Economic Index for the past 10 years:

“High unemployment, government cutbacks and layoffs (at the local, state, and federals levels), tight corporate purse strings, and a weak housing market continue to take a toll on the economy. The steep decline of stock markets this year is making consumers more fearful about their finances and the future. The U.S. economy is teetering on the edge of another recession,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “However, not all of the news is bad. Falling commodity prices (especially oil and gasoline) are stimulants to the U.S. economy—and the world economy. If commodity prices continue to fall, the chances are good that another recession could be avoided.

“The probability of a Greek sovereign default within the next few months (not to mention Portugal, Ireland, Italy, or Spain) continues to pose risks for the financial markets and the world economy. The European Union is mired in the quicksands of excessive debt, fragile economies, and inadequate governance. These risks will threaten world economic growth in 2012,” said Thomas.

International Index

The table below compares the U.S. Economic Index to Decision Analyst’s Economic Indices for other countries. In Europe, Germany has the strongest economy with a score of 101, with France and the United Kingdom tied for the lowest score at 75. In South America, Brazil’s Index is 122 (a rapidly expanding economy) and in Asia, China scores 120.

Census Divisions

The center of the United States has the highest Economic Index scores, with the West South Central Division at 96 and the West North Central at 95. The Eastern one-third of the U.S. appears to be relatively weak. The East South Central has the lowest score at 86. (See map below.)

 

The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online survey is conducted in the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated from 9 different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, the Russian Federation, Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 90 to 110 suggests a no-growth or slow-growth economy, and near or below 90 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.

About Decision Analyst

Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development, advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. For over 3 decades, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in the consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical, and automotive industries.

For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011

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