Home | Press Room | Press Release Archives | Economic Index July 2011

---

For Immediate Release
August 5, 2011
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166

Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index remains at 95 for July 2011, the same as in May and June. The Index has moved sideways or trended slightly lower over the past 6 or 7 months, suggesting economic sluggishness in the second half of 2011. The U.S. Economic Index is a leading indicator (tending to foreshadow overall economic activity by 6 to 12 months). Here is the U.S. Economic Index for the past 3 years.

Here is the U.S. Economic Index for the past 10 years.

“The 10-year graph of the U.S. Economic Index indicates that the economy bottomed out in early 2009 and has not yet regained its prerecession levels. The U.S. economy has been comparatively weak for a whole decade,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “The Index is predicting a no-growth to slow-growth economy for the second half of 2011. High unemployment continues to slow any momentum for a recovery. Many city, county, and state governments are cutting jobs in order to balance budgets. While small businesses are doing slightly better, they are not planning to hire new employees.

“The economic recovery is fragile, and rising prices threaten to tip the U.S. back into recession. If gasoline and energy prices decline during the second half of 2011, that would be a significant stimulus to the economy.

“There is a high risk of financial meltdowns in 2011, especially in Europe, and these risks could dampen economic growth in 2011. The European Union remains less than robust,” said Thomas. “The clouds of financial stress hang over Europe as Italy, Spain, and Greece struggle to deal with excessive debt and less-than-stellar economies.”

International Index

The table below compares the U.S. Economic Index to Decision Analyst’s Economic Indices in other countries. The North American countries are hovering in the mid-to low 90s, with Canada’s Index score of 93 and Mexico’s score of 92. Meanwhile in Europe, Germany has the strongest Index, with a score of 103, while all the other countries being reported are in the 80s. The emerging countries in South American and Asia have strong scores; Brazil has an Index of 123 and China has an index of 125.

Census Divisions

The center part of the United States has the highest scores, with the West South Central Division having a score of 100 and the West North Central having a score of 98. The East South Central Division has the lowest score (90). (See map below.)

 

The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online survey is conducted in the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated from 9 different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation, Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 90 to 110 suggests a no-growth or slow-growth economy, and near or below 90 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.

About Decision Analyst

Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development, advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. For over 3 decades, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in the consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical, and automotive industries.

For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011

Visit our Logos & Images page for photographs and logos, if needed.