Home | Press Room | Press Release Archives | Economic Index June 2011

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For Immediate Release
July 6, 2011
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166

Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index remains at 95 for June 2011, the same as in May. The Index has moved sideways or trended slightly lower over the past 6 or 7 months, suggesting economic sluggishness in the second half of 2011. The U.S. Economic Index is a leading indicator (tending to foreshadow overall economic activity by 6 to 12 months). Here is the U.S. Economic Index for the past 3 years.

Here is the U.S. Economic Index for the past 10 years.

“The 10-year graph of the U.S. Economic Index reveals the severity and the duration of the recession. While it is evident that the Index bottomed out in early 2009, the long-term view of the Index reveals that the U.S. economy has not regained its prerecession levels. It’s also instructive to remember that the U.S. Economic Index stood at 125 in the late 1990s.” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “The U.S. economy has been comparatively weak for a whole decade.”

“The Index is predicting a no-growth to slow-growth economy for the second half of 2011,” said Thomas. “The economic recovery is fragile, and rising prices threaten to tip the U.S. back into recession. If gasoline and energy prices decline during the second half of 2011, that would be a significant stimulus to the economy.”

“High unemployment continues to be a persistent drag on the U.S. economy,” said Thomas. “Many state, county, and city governments are cutting employees to balance budgets. The U.S. Federal Government will make job cuts in the second half. Small businesses are doing slightly better, but they are not planning to hire many new employees—at least not yet.”

International Index

The table below compares the U.S. Economic Index to Decision Analyst’s Economic Indices in other countries. Germany has the highest Index in Europe with a score of 103, while France lags far behind, with an Index score of 79. In South America, Brazil is leading the way with an Index of 127, while Argentina trails with an Index of 96. In Asia, China leads with an Index of 127, while Australia lags behind with an Index of 98

Census Divisions

The West South Central Division is the only division above 100, with a score of 103, and at the other end the Mountain Division is the only division with a score lower than 90, with a score of 88. (See map below.)

 

The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online survey is conducted in the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated from 9 different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation, Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 90 to 110 suggests a no-growth or slow-growth economy, and near or below 90 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.

About Decision Analyst

Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development, advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. For over 3 decades, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in the consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical, and automotive industries.

For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011

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