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Economic Indices March 2011
For Immediate Release
April 5, 2011
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index Down
Slightly in March;
Italian Economic Index Is Also Down
Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index registered
94 for March 2011, a 1-point drop from February’s Index of 95. Throughout
the past 12 months, the U.S. Economic Index has moved sideways, fluctuating
between 94 and 96 most of the time. The Italian Economic Index stood at 85 for
March 2011, a 4-point drop from 89 in February 2011; and the Colombian Economic
Index stood at 104 for March 2011, a 3-point increase from 101 in February 2011.
Since the Decision Analyst Economic Indices are leading indicators for their
respective countries (tending to foreshadow overall economic activity by 6 to
12 months in each respective country), the Index is forecasting slow economic
growth for the balance of 2011.
“The U.S. Economic Index continues to predict a slow economic recovery
for the balance of 2011, despite massive governmental stimulus. The slow growth
equates to little margin for error,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO
of Decision Analyst. “Any major shock to the U.S. economy could easily
tip it back into a recession. The rising profitability of large U.S. corporations
is a positive sign for the future, especially if those companies choose to invest
that money in the U.S. economy. Small businesses are doing better, but still
struggling to get access to credit at reasonable rates. The reductions in employment
and spending at state, county, and city levels will be a drag on the U.S. economy
over the next 2 years. The risks of additional increases in commodity prices,
and the debt and deficit problems of the U.S. government—and Ireland,
Portugal, Greece, Japan, etc.—are some of the possible shocks that pose
danger to the U.S. recovery.”
The Decision Analyst Economic Indices for the individual countries for the
past 10 years are below.
The Index numbers for Argentina, Australia, Chile, China, Colombia, Germany,
Mexico, and Spain are a three-month moving average to smooth out month-to-month
fluctuations. The reported Index number averages the current month with the
two previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric
model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country
surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the
respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys
each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia,
France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation,
Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and
analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product research,
advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization.
The 33-year-old firm delivers competitive advantage to clients throughout the
world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology,
medical, and automotive industries.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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