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Press Release Archives | U.S. Census Division
Economic Indices March 2011
For Immediate Release
April 5, 2011
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index Down
Slightly in March;
The West North Central Census Division is Also Down
Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index registered
94 for March 2011, a 1-point drop from February’s Index of 95. Throughout
the past 12 months, the U.S. Economic Index has moved sideways, fluctuating
between 94 and 96 most of the time. The West North Central Census Division registered
a 95 for March 2011, dropping 3 points from 98 in February 2011. The U.S. Economic
Index is a leading indicator (tending to foreshadow overall economic activity
by 6 to 12 months) and is forecasting slow economic growth for the balance of
2011. Here is the U.S. Economic Index for the past 10 years.
“The U.S. Economic Index continues to predict a slow economic
recovery for the balance of 2011, despite massive governmental stimulus. The
slow growth equates to little margin for error,” said Jerry W. Thomas,
President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “Any major shock to the U.S. economy
could easily tip it back into a recession. The rising profitability of large
U.S. corporations is a positive sign for the future, especially if those companies
choose to invest that money in the U.S. economy. Small businesses are doing
better, but still struggling to get access to credit at reasonable rates. The
reductions in employment and spending at state, county, and city levels will
be a drag on the U.S. economy over the next two years. The risks of additional
increases in commodity prices, and the debt and deficit problems of the U.S.
government—and Ireland, Portugal, Greece, Japan, etc.—are some of
the possible shocks that pose danger to the U.S. recovery.”
The West South Central and the Middle Atlantic Divisions each have an Index
of 97, the highest scores of all the U.S. Divisions. Meanwhile the Pacific and
Mountain Divisions have the lowest score, an Index of 92.
The trends for the various census divisions tend to be similar overall, but
regional differences are evident. Of the census divisions, the Middle Atlantic
and the East South Central Divisions have increased 1-point from February to
March; all other divisions have the same score or have declined from February
to March. The division-by-division results for the past 10 years are presented
in the following graphs. Remember, the graphs portray 3-month moving averages.
Census Division Three-Month Moving Average
The Index numbers for the census divisions are a three-month moving average
to smooth out fluctuations due to smaller sample sizes. The reported Index number
averages the current month with the two previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric
model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country
surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the
respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys
each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia,
France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation,
Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and
analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product research,
advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization.
The 33-year-old firm delivers competitive advantage to clients throughout the
world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology,
medical, and automotive industries.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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