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Economic Index
For Immediate Release
October 5, 2010
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
Decision Analyst’s International Economic Indices
Signal Slow Growth In coming Months;
U.S. Shows Slight Improvement While Italy Declines
Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index registered
96 in September, a one-point increase from the previous month. Many other countries
have also been experiencing gradual increases in their Index scores throughout
2010.
- Argentina has been increasing for the past seven months, registering 84
in February then gradually increasing to 91 in September.
- Colombia has been increasing for the past 13 months, going from 89 in August
2009 to 102 in September 2010.
- France has been increasing for the past four months, going from 75 in May
to 85 in September.
- Germany has been increasing for the past seven months, going from 97 in
February to 103 in September.
However, not all countries have seen increases.
- Canada has been declining for the past five months, from 101 in April to
93 in September.
- India has the largest one-month drop for September, declining 6 points
from 124 in August to 118 in September.
- Italy has also had a large one-month drop, declining five points from 92
in August to 87 in September.
The overall pattern is a gradual uptrend in the Index over the past 18 months.
Since the Economic Index is a leading indicator (tending to foreshadow overall
economic activity in each country surveyed by six to 12 months), the Index is
forecasting a slowly expanding economy for the balance of 2010 and the first
half of 2011.
“The global economy continues to show a pattern of modest but steady
growth,” according to Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst.
“Major corporations are flush with cash and credit at low-interest rates,
and this will exert positive energy to sustain the recovery. The international
economy continues to recover as well, and this will provide uplift for the U.S.
economy. Small businesses in the U.S., however, continue to struggle without
access to adequate credit. The continued weakness in the housing industry, mortgage
problems, and high unemployment limits growth. Budget deficits at all levels
of government (domestic and globally), and the consequent cutbacks in governmental
expenditures and increases in taxes, will also act to slow the economy throughout
the next two or three years. If there are no major shocks to the system (such
as another financial crisis or credit freeze), the global economy should continue
its plodding recovery,” said Thomas. “The threat of a double-dip
recession remains, however, simply because economic growth is so feeble. The
margin of error is small. It would not take much to move us from the positive
to the negative.”
The following graphs show the individual Economic Indices by country.
The Index numbers for Argentina, Australia, Chile, China, Colombia, Germany,
Mexico, and Spain are a three-month moving average to smooth out month-to-month
fluctuations. The reported Index number averages the current month with the
two previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric
model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country
surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the
respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys
each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia,
France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation,
Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading global marketing research
and analytical consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy
research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision
optimization. The 32-year-old firm delivers competitive advantage to clients
throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail,
technology, medical, and pharmaceutical industries. In addition, Decision Analyst
owns and operates the American Consumer Opinion® Online panel—one
of the largest consumer opinion panels in the world—with more than eight
million members.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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