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Press Release Archives | U.S. Census Division
Economic Indices
For Immediate Release
September 2, 2010
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index Signals
Slow Growth In Coming Months
The East South Central Census Division Index Increases
Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst Economic Index for the U.S. registered
95 in August 2010, a one-point increase from 94 in July 2010. By Census Division,
the East South Central division increased from 94 in July to 96 in August, the
largest increase of all the Census Divisions. Since the Decision Analyst Economic
Index tends to foreshadow the U.S. economy by six to 12 months, it continues
to indicate that economic growth will be sluggish for the remaining months of
2010 and into the first half of 2011. Below is the U.S. Economic Index for the
past three years.
“As the chart above reveals, the U.S. Economic Index has
been essentially flat for the past 11 months. The Index is signaling slow growth,
or no growth, for the next six to 12 months,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO
of Decision Analyst. “The Economic Index is not forecasting a double-dip
recession, although it’s possible that we could experience one or two
slightly negative quarters over the next year. It’s difficult to see any
factors that might produce strong economic growth in 2011. High unemployment,
continuing foreclosures, sluggish home sales, and lack of credit for consumers
and small businesses will remain significant drags on the economy over the next
12 months.”
The Pacific and Mountain Divisions appear to be doing worse than the rest
of the country, while New England and Middle Atlantic have the highest Economic
Index scores of all the census divisions. (See map below.)
| Three-Year History By Census Division |
Overall, for most of the Census Divisions, there was little change in the July
to August Index. The divisions with the most movement were, the West South Central
Division, which dropped from 96 in July to 94 in August; the Mountain Division
which dropped from 93 in July to 91 in August; and the East South Central Division
which increased from 94 in July to 96 in August. (See the individual census
division graphs below.)
Census Division Three-Month Moving Average
The Index numbers for the census divisions are a three-month moving average
to smooth out fluctuations due to smaller sample sizes. The reported Index number
averages the current month with the two previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric
model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country
surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the
respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys
each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia,
France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation,
Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading global marketing research
and analytical consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy
research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision
optimization. The 32-year-old firm delivers competitive advantage to clients
throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail,
technology, medical, and pharmaceutical industries. In addition, Decision Analyst
owns and operates the American Consumer Opinion® Online panel—one
of the largest consumer opinion panels in the world—with more than eight
million members.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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