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Press Release Archives | U.S. Census Division
Economic Indices
For Immediate Release
July 2, 2010
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index Predicts
Sluggish
Economic Growth
Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst Economic Index for the U.S. has
trended flat for the past 8 months, and is only up 3 points from June 2009.
The U.S. Economic Index registered 95 in June, the same as May. Since the Decision
Analyst Economic Index tends to foreshadow the U.S. economy by six to 12 months,
it continues to signal that economic growth will be sluggish for the second
half of 2010 and into the first half of 2011. Below is the U.S. Economic Index
for the past three years.
“The relative flatness of the Economic Index for the past
several months indicates that the tough economic times are here to stay for
a while,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “The
greatest limit to economic growth is the lack of access to credit. Consumers
are finding it difficult to borrow money. Small businesses cannot borrow money,
even those with longstanding banking relationships. The lack of credit for small
businesses is prolonging the recession and exacerbating high unemployment. The
U.S. government’s efforts to jumpstart the economy with tax credits for
autos and housing appear to only have borrowed sales from the future. The financial
problems at state, county, school district, and city levels are likewise prolonging
the recession, as public employees are cut from the payrolls and budgets are
reduced. Economic growth in China is slowing, as it is in Europe, further increasing
the downside risks to the global economy,” said Thomas.
The New England Division’s Index is much higher than the other census
divisions. The East South Central, South Atlantic, and Mountain Divisions are
comparatively weaker than the rest of the country (see map below).
| Three-Year History By Census
Division |
The West North Central Division has increased from a 96 in April to 100 in
June, while the East South Central Region has increased from 94 in April to
96 in June. The West South Central Division (including Louisiana) has increased
from an Index of 95 in April to 97 in June. The New England Division has dropped
from an Index of 104 in April to 101 in June. (See the individual census division
graphs below.)
Census Division Three-Month Moving Average
The Index numbers for the census divisions are a three-month moving average
to smooth out fluctuations due to smaller sample sizes. The reported Index number
averages the current month with the two previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric
model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country
surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the
respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys
each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia,
France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation,
Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading global marketing research
and analytical consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy
research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision
optimization. The 32-year-old firm delivers competitive advantage to clients
throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail,
technology, medical, and pharmaceutical industries. In addition, Decision Analyst
owns and operates the American Consumer Opinion® Online panel—one
of the largest consumer opinion panels in the world—with more than eight
million members.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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