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Economic Indices
For Immediate Release
February 4, 2010
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
U.S. Economy Starts 2010 With a Sigh—Decision
Analyst’s
January Economic Index Remains Unchanged
Arlington, Texas—Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index for January
2010 remains unchanged for the third month in a row—at an Index of 94.
During 2009, the Index increased nine points from a low point of 85 in January
2009 to 94 in January 2010, as shown in the graph below. Since this Index tends
to lead the U.S. economy by nine to 12 months, this sideways movement of the
Economic Index is predicting a sluggish economy during 2010. Below is the Economic
Index for the past three years.
“The economy is starting 2010 on more solid footing than
it started in 2009, but the ‘recovery’ remains weak and tentative.
Record high unemployment, looming housing foreclosures, and lack of credit availability
are all major risks to economic growth in 2010. The risk that financial markets
will freeze up again during 2010 is substantial. Consumer plans to make durable
goods purchases in 2010 are relatively weak,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO
of Decision Analyst. “The U.S. economy is still on life support in the
emergency room, and any shock to the system could trigger another downward spiral.”
The Mountain, South Atlantic, East North Central, Pacific, and Middle Atlantic
Divisions continue to struggle, compared to other sections of the U.S. The West
North Central, West South Central, East South Central, and New England Divisions
appear to be doing a little better than the rest of the country. (See regional
map on next page.)
| Three-Year History By Census
Division |
The East South Central Division is on a three-month climb, increasing from
an index of 92 in October 2009 to an index of 97 in January 2010. The Middle
Atlantic, South Atlantic, and East North Central Divisions each decreased two
points from December 2009 to January 2010.
Census Division Three-Month Moving Average
The Index numbers for the census divisions are a three-month moving average
to smooth out fluctuations due to smaller sample sizes. The reported Index number
averages the current month with the two previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric
model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country
surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the
respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys
each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia,
France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation,
Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading global marketing research
and analytical consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy
research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision
optimization. The 31-year-old firm delivers competitive advantage to clients
throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail,
technology, medical, and pharmaceutical industries. In addition, Decision Analyst
owns and operates the American Consumer Opinion® Online panel—one
of the largest consumer opinion panels in the world—with more than eight
million members.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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