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For Immediate Release November 4, 2009
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166

Arlington, Texas—Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index for October 2009 increased dramatically, jumping from 92 in September to 96 in October. Since this Index tends to foreshadow the U.S. economy by nine to 12 months, this uptick in the Economic Index suggests that the economy will grow in the last quarter of 2009 and the first half of 2010. The Index successfully predicted the bottoming of the U.S. economy evident in the second quarter of 2009. Here’s the Economic Index for the past three years:

“While the U.S. economy is still fragile, these signs of recovery are encouraging. Consumers are seeing more business activity where they work, the job market appears to be stabilizing, and consumers’ confidence is growing, as indicated by rising future intent to buy high-ticket durable goods,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “On the negative side, any shock to the economic system (like a jump in oil prices, contraction of credit, or rising unemployment) could force the economy to stumble. It’s going to be a tough slog for many months,” said Thomas.

Census Divisions

The Pacific, Mountain, East South Central, and South Atlantic Divisions continue to struggle, compared to other sections of the U.S. The East North Central Division (automotive region) has made recent improvements, presumably due to the U.S. government’s “Cash for Clunkers” program.

 

International Index

The chart below compares the U.S. Economic Index to Decision Analyst’s Economic Indices in other countries. Canada, Germany, and Australia appear to be performing better than the U.S., while the emerging markets in China, Brazil, and India have the highest scores of the countries listed. France, Argentina, and Mexico appear to be doing comparatively worse than other countries.

Methodology

The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation, Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela. Not all International Indices are made available to the public due to low base sizes.

Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.

About Decision Analyst

Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading global marketing research and analytical consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. The 30-year-old firm delivers competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical, and pharmaceutical industries. In addition, Decision Analyst owns and operates American Consumer Opinion® Online—one of the largest consumer opinion panels in the world—with more than seven million members.

For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011

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