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For Immediate Release October 6, 2009
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166

Arlington, Texas—Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index for September 2009 trended down slightly, falling from 93 in August to 92 in September. Since this Index tends to foreshadow the U.S. economy by nine to 12 months, this “flat” trend indicates a very slow-growth or no-growth economy in coming months. The Index successfully predicted the stabilization of the U.S. economy evident in the third quarter, but now is signaling a stagnant future. Here’s the Economic Index for the past three years:

“The U.S. economy is at a fragile point. The best we can hope for is a relatively stable economy over the next 12 months, but downside risks remain. Any serious shock to the system (like a jump in oil prices, interest rates, or taxes) could tumble the U.S. economy into further declines,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “The economy remains at risk because of falling real estate and land values, a weak under-capitalized banking system, the ongoing contraction of credit, rising unemployment, and consumers’ being fearful of spending money on high-ticket goods and services.”

“On the bright side, consumers are seeing some prices come down, and they view this deflation as a positive. It also appears that the job market is beginning to stabilize (i.e., not going down as fast), and those who still have jobs are relatively confident they will keep their jobs,” said Thomas. “However, it’s going to be touch and go for many months.”

Census Divisions

The West North Central and the West South Central divisions appear to be weathering the recession better than the rest of the country. That is, the area from North Dakota and Minnesota south to Texas and Louisiana is doing much better than the remaining parts of the U.S. The New England and Middle Atlantic regions are improving. The whole Western portion of the U.S. is struggling (Pacific and Mountain), as well as the East North Central division (automotive blues) and the East South Central and South Atlantic.

 

International Index

The chart on the next page compares the U.S. Economic Index to Decision Analyst’s Economic Indices in other countries. Canada, Germany, and Australia appear to be performing better than the U.S., while the emerging markets in China, Brazil, and India have the highest scores of the countries listed. France, Argentina, and Mexico appear to be doing comparatively worse than other countries.

Methodology

The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.

About Decision Analyst

Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading global marketing research and analytical consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. The 30-year-old firm delivers competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical, and pharmaceutical industries. In addition, Decision Analyst owns and operates American Consumer Opinion® Online—one of the largest consumer opinion panels in the world—with more than seven million members.

For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011

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