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For Immediate Release June 4, 2009
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166

Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst Economic Index increased for the third straight month in May. The Index has moved up eight points in the past three months, from 85 in February to 93 in May. The Economic Index is a leading indicator, usually anticipating changes in gross domestic product by 10 to 12 months.

“The U.S. Economic Index is signaling the beginnings of recovery by late 2009 or early 2010. Decision Analyst continues to forecast that the U.S. recession is at or near the bottom, and will begin to turn upward by the fourth quarter of 2009,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “The economy is fragile, however, and any significant shock (such as a spike in energy prices or increase in interest rates) could derail or delay the recovery.”

“Growing unemployment levels will continue to act as a drag on the economy, and will constrain sales of many consumer goods and services in coming months. Lack of credit at all levels (business and consumer) will be a significant drag on the economy. Consumer and commercial mortgage defaults will continue to pose problems for another 24 to 36 months, and this will slow economic activity. All of these problems will translate into a slow, hesitant recovery,” according to Thomas.

Census Divisions

The middle of the U.S. appears to be weathering the recession better than the rest of the country. The West North Central and the West South Central divisions are doing the best. New England and the South Atlantic divisions are rebounding faster that the Pacific division. The East North Central division, where the automotive industry is concentrated, appears to be suffering the greatest economic difficulties, as shown below:

Decision Analyst U.S. Census Division Economic Index
(Three-Month Average*)

* The Index numbers for the census divisions are a three-month moving average to smooth out fluctuations due to smaller sample sizes.

International Index

A comparison of the U.S. Economic Index to the Economic Indices in other countries provides some interesting perspective. Canada is doing about the same as the U.S. ; and China , Brazil , and India appear to be doing comparatively well. France and Mexico appear to be doing comparatively worse than other countries.

Methodology

The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The survey is typically conducted in the last 10 days of each month. The Index is calculated from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of current U.S. economic activity as seen through the eyes of representative consumers. Decision Analyst also conducts concurrent economic surveys in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation, United Kingdom, and Venezuela. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.

About Decision Analyst

Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading global marketing research and marketing consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. The 30-year-old firm delivers competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical, and pharmaceutical industries. In addition, Decision Analyst owns and operates the American Consumer Opinion® Online panel—one of the largest consumer opinion panels in the world—with more than seven million members.

For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011

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