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For Immediate Release March 6, 2009
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166

Arlington, Texas— The Decision Analyst Economic Index registered 85 in February 2009, unchanged from January, its lowest reading in the past decade. The Economic Index tends to be a leading indicator, usually anticipating changes in gross domestic product by 12 to 18 months.

“The fact that the Economic Index has been hovering around the same level for the past 10 months signals a leveling of the U.S. economy in coming months. We are likely at, or very near, the bottom of this recession in the U.S. We continue to forecast a bottom to the U.S. recession by the end of the third or fourth quarters of 2009,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “While Wall Street continues in panic mode, and the daily economic news is grim, the average consumer seems to be holding reasonably steady. We think consumers will begin to spend again as 2009 unfolds, especially toward the end of the year.”

“The recovery is likely to be slow and prolonged as state governments’ budgets, commercial mortgages, credit card debts, and private-equity and hedge fund investments go sour in coming months, which will offset some of the positive developments. The forecast of a recession trough in the later half of 2009 assumes that the credit markets and the banking sector will begin to function normally as the year unfolds,” said Thomas. “If the banking system and credit markets cannot be restored, then the downtrend in the U.S. economy will continue.”

Census Divisions

The middle of the U.S. appears to be weathering the recession better than the rest of the country. The West North Central and the West South Central Divisions are doing better than the West Coast or the East Coast. The East North Central (i.e., automotive industry) and New England appear to be suffering the greatest economic difficulties, as shown below:

International Index

A comparison of the U.S. Economic Index to the Economic Indices in other countries provides some interesting perspective. Canada is doing slightly better than the U.S. China, Brazil, and India appear to be doing comparatively well. Argentina, France, and the U.K. are struggling.

Methodology

The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The survey is typically conducted in the last 10 days of each month. The Index is calculated from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of current U.S. economic activity as seen through the eyes of representative consumers. Decision Analyst also conducts concurrent economic surveys in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation, United Kingdom, and Venezuela. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.

About Decision Analyst

Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading marketing research and marketing consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. The firm delivers competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, high technology, medical and pharmaceutical, utilities, and e-commerce industries. Decision Analyst operates American Consumer Opinion® online, one of the world's largest Internet-based consumer-opinion panels, with more than seven million members.

For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011

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