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For Immediate Release January 6, 2009
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166

Arlington, Texas— Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index remained essentially flat during the month of December, showing a one point decline to 87. The fact that the U.S. Economic Index has remained relatively stable for the past nine months signals that the U.S. economy is likely to start recovering during the second half of 2009. The Economic Index tends to be a leading indicator, usually foreshadowing Gross Domestic Product by 12 to 18 months. It is quite remarkable, in the face of daunting economic news and dire economic warnings, that the U.S. Economic Index has remained stable for the last nine months of 2008, as shown below:

“While the media and new services hype the recession and all of the negative economic news, the average man on the street in the U.S. is seeing some positive signs: declining prices of homes, gasoline, and a wide array of retail goods; and declining interest rates. The Economic Index is indicating that the U.S. economy will “bottom out” during the middle of 2009, if present trends remain in effect,” said Jerry W. Thomas, president/CEO of Decision Analyst, a marketing research and consulting firm. “The published economic data are very confusing and difficult to read right now, because of deflationary trends. Falling prices make the reported economic numbers look worse than they actually are. So, we are becoming increasingly optimistic that the U.S. recession will come to an end during the second or third quarters of 2009,” said Thomas. “The Great Financial Panic of 2008, however, continues to inject uncertainty into any forecast of future economic activity, because continuing credit contraction may short-circuit the normal economic recovery process.”

Census Divisions

The middle of the U.S. appears to be weathering the recession better than the rest of the country. The West North Central, the West South Central, and Mountain Census Divisions are doing better than the West Coast or the East Coast, as shown below:

*The index number for the census regions is a three-month average, used to even out fluctuations due to smaller sample sizes.

International Index

A comparison of the U.S. Economic Index to the Economic Index in other countries provides some interesting perspective. Canada is doing slightly better than the U.S. China, Brazil, Germany, and India appear to be doing comparatively well. Spain, France, and the U.K. are struggling.

Methodology

The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The survey is typically conducted in the last 10 days of each month. The Index is calculated from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of current U.S. economic activity as seen through the eyes of representative consumers. Decision Analyst also conducts concurrent economic surveys in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation, United Kingdom, and Venezuela. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.

About Decision Analyst

Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading marketing research and marketing consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. The firm delivers competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, high technology, medical and pharmaceutical, utilities, and e-commerce industries. Decision Analyst operates American Consumer Opinion® online, one of the world's largest Internet-based consumer-opinion panels, with more than seven million members.

For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011

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