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For Immediate Release December 8, 2008
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166

Arlington, Texas (December 8, 2008)— Decision Analyst’s Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index held steady during the month of November at 88, a level essentially unchanged for eight months, despite the ongoing credit crisis, record foreclosures, layoffs, and bankruptcies. As shown in the graph below, the Index’s decline began in the Fall of 2006, a full year before the current recession officially began in December 2007. The Economic Index deteriorated rapidly in the fourth quarter of 2007 and the first quarter of 2008, but appears to have “bottomed out” over the past seven or eight months (that is, it stopped going down). This indicates that the bottom of the recession is most likely occurring now (give or take a quarter or two). This could indicate the beginning of a recovery by mid-2009 (assuming credit markets are functioning properly).

“If we did not have a financial panic superimposed on a recession, it’s highly probable that the U.S. economy would begin to recover during the first half of 2009,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “The Financial Panic of 2008, however, injects great uncertainty into any forecast of future economic activity. The Decision Analyst Economic Index is signaling a recovery during 2009, but it’s unclear if that will occur during the first or second half of the year. And, it’s always possible that the financial disruption and turmoil will postpone the recovery.” The falling cost of gasoline and other products and services is giving the U.S. consumer some optimism about the economic future, and this has been the main factor preventing the Economic Index from further declines in recent months.

International Index

A comparison of the U.S. Economic Index to the Economic Index in other countries provides some interesting perspective. Canada is doing slightly better than the U.S. China and Brazil appear to be doing comparatively well and better than the U.S. too. France, the UK, and Italy appear to be relatively weak at the present.

Census Region

The West North Central and the West South Central seem to be fairing much better than the country as a whole, while the South Atlantic and East South Central regions are doing much worse.

*The index number for the census regions is a three-month average, used to even out fluctuations due to smaller sample sizes.

Methodology

The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The survey is typically conducted in the last 10 days of each month. The Index is calculated from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of current U.S. economic activity as seen through the eyes of representative consumers. Decision Analyst also conducts concurrent economic surveys in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation, United Kingdom, and Venezuela. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.

About Decision Analyst

Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading global marketing research and marketing consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. The 30-year-old firm delivers competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical and pharmaceutical industries. In addition, Decision Analyst owns and operates the American Consumer Opinion® Online panel, one of the largest consumer opinion panels in the world—with more than 7 million members.

For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1.800.ANALYSIS (262.5974)
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011

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