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For Immediate Release May 5, 2008
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
The Decision Analyst Economic Index Falls to Low Point in April.
Inflation Disaster Looming on the Horizon.
Arlington, Texas (May 5, 2008)—
Decision Analyst�s U.S. Economic Index dropped from 90 in March to 88 in April 2008. The Index has dropped 20 points over the past year, and is clearly signaling that recession has arrived. The chart below shows the U.S. Economic Index for the past 13 months.
“ The price escalations (primarily energy and food) rolling through the economy are taking their toll on consumers’ lives and purchasing power. It is evident that the average family in the U.S. is experiencing much higher levels of inflation than the relatively benign inflation numbers reported by the U.S. Government,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “The Federal Government’s inflation models are understating the actual rate of inflation,” said Thomas, “and this means that the U.S. economy has been in recession for six to nine months already. The greatest danger to the economy now is runaway inflation. The Federal Reserve must move quickly to raise interest rates and constrain the money supply to avert a looming inflation disaster.”
Among the components that make up the Economic Index, the factors pushing the Index lower in April were concerns about inflation (rising costs of goods and services), declines in “consumer purchase intent” for durable goods, and a decrease in “corporate hiring.” The only positive factor in the April Economic Index was optimism that stock markets would increase in value in coming months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The survey
is typically conducted between the 20th and 27th of each month. The Index is
calculated from nine different economic measurements, using a sophisticated
econometric model. The result is a snapshot of current U.S. economic activity,
as seen through the eyes of representative consumers. Decision Analyst also
conducts concurrent economic surveys in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada,
Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands,
Peru, Russian Federation, United Kingdom, and Venezuela. Whenever the Decision
Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding
economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth economy, and below
100 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country,
however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading marketing research
and marketing consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy
research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision
optimization. The firm delivers competitive advantage to clients throughout
the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, high technology,
medical and pharmaceutical, utilities, and e-commerce industries. Decision Analyst
operates American Consumer Opinion® online, one of the world's largest Internet-based
consumer-opinion panels, with more than seven million members.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1.800.ANALYSIS (262.5974)
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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