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For Immediate Release April 9, 2008
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
The Decision Analyst Economic Index Indicates Recession
Arlington, Texas (April 9, 2008)—
Decision Analyst’s U.S.
Economic Index dropped from 95 in February 2008 to 90 in March. The steady decline in the Index for the past year, and the precipitous decline in January, February and March, confirms that we are in a recession. The chart below shows the U.S. Economic Index for the past 13 months.
“
The high cost of energy and food, plus the tightening credit markets, have finally pulled the U.S. economy into recession territory,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “In fact, our tracking data indicate that consumers are experiencing and reporting much higher inflation than the federal government is. If inflation rates are actually higher than those reported by the U.S. government, that means that the U.S. economy really crossed over into recession during the last quarter of 2007
” .
Among the components that make up the Economic Index, the factors pushing the Index lower in March were concerns around inflation (rising costs of goods and services), negative expectations about future stock prices, and decreasing “business activity” where people work. The only positive factor in the March Economic Index was employment status, but employment tends to be a lagging indicator.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The survey
is typically conducted between the 20th and 27th of each month. The Index is
calculated from nine different economic measurements, using a sophisticated
econometric model. The result is a snapshot of current U.S. economic activity,
as seen through the eyes of representative consumers. Decision Analyst also
conducts concurrent economic surveys in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada,
Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands,
Peru, Russian Federation, United Kingdom, and Venezuela. Whenever the Decision
Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding
economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth economy, and below
100 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country,
however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading marketing research
and marketing consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy
research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision
optimization. The firm delivers competitive advantage to clients throughout
the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, high technology,
medical and pharmaceutical, utilities, and e-commerce industries. Decision Analyst
operates American Consumer Opinion® online, one of the world's largest Internet-based
consumer-opinion panels, with more than seven million members.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1.800.ANALYSIS (262.5974)
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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