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For Immediate Release June 6, 2003
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
Decision Analyst's Economic Index Continues To Signal Sluggish Growth
U.S. Index Value For May Shows Few Signs Of Imminent Recovery
Arlington, Texas (June 06, 2003)-Decision Analyst, Inc.'s U.S. Economic Index
shows confidence remains stuck well short of recovery levels in May. The Index
(calculated from a nationwide, online survey conducted during the last 10 days
of each month) was little changed from the April value, falling back slightly
to 108 points.
"The failure of the Index in May to build on the April increase shows just how
fragile the economy is right now," said Jerry W. Thomas, President and CEO of
Decision Analyst, an international marketing research and marketing consulting
firm. "The positive impact provided by the successful conclusion of the Iraq
war appears to have evaporated and attention has returned to the weaknesses in
the economic fundamentals."
Among the categories that produce the overall Economic Index, the biggest change
was for confidence in the stock market where optimism, after two consecutive
months of increasing confidence in the markets' growth potential, fell back to
116 (on its own weighted scale) from April's 126 (although it remains well
above the February 2003 low of 86 points). The one positive indicator was a
rise in employment status, which recovered to 154 after two months stuck below
150 (147 in March and 148 last month).
"Uncertainty seems to be the overriding mood at the current time," Thomas says.
"The international picture remains volatile, especially in the Middle East, and
domestic terror alerts have done little to calm the public. In addition, most
of the economic fundamentals remain as depressed now as they have been all
year. There's little sign of the job market improving, and month-to-month
business activity is sagging. Nevertheless, we still expect the economy to keep
inching forward, with some acceleration in growth later this year."
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The survey
is conducted during the last 10 days of each month, and the Index is
immediately calculated from nine different economic measurements, using a
sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of current U.S.
economic activity, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers.
Decision Analyst also conducts concurrent economic surveys in Canada, the U.K.,
Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands, Mexico and Australia. Whenever the
Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an
expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a stagnant economy,
and below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary
by country, however.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1.800.ANALYSIS (262.5974)
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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