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For Immediate Release August 1, 2003
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
Decision Analyst's Economic Index Held Back by Lack of Consumer Confidence
High-Dollar Purchases Being Shunned By Cautious Consumers
Arlington, Texas (August 01, 2003) - Decision Analyst, Inc.'s U.S. Economic
Index remains unable to break out on the upside, according to new July figures.
The Index (calculated from a nationwide, online survey conducted during the
last 10 days of each month) edged down slightly in July, falling to 108 points.
The Index has remained bogged down between 108 and 109 for four months now.
"The economy is struggling to make the move towards higher growth that we are
still expecting for later in the year," said Jerry W. Thomas, President and CEO
of Decision Analyst, a marketing research and marketing consulting firm. "The
economy continues to grow at a slow pace, and the second quarter showed
improvement over the first, but rapid growth needed for job creation is not yet
here."
Among the categories that produce the overall Economic Index, most showed little
change. However, a worrying trend is the falling purchase intent of consumers.
The consumer purchase plans (covering a range of high-ticket items such as cars
and trucks, vacations and houses) fell to a scaled value of 100, down from 105
in June. The fall is the third consecutive decline in a row, an 11 percent
decline since April.
"Falling consumer purchase intent is troubling," Thomas says. "It's indicative
of the number of uncertainties dominating the headlines right now. The
international situation remains volatile, with the ongoing problems in Iraq,
the Middle East, and now Liberia. In addition, there's little sign of the job
market improving, and gas prices are edging up as well. We still think growth
will accelerate in the second half of the year, but the rate of acceleration is
becoming debatable."
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The survey
is conducted during the last 10 days of each month, and the Index is
immediately calculated from nine different economic measurements, using a
sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of current U.S.
economic activity, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers.
Decision Analyst also conducts concurrent economic surveys in Canada, the U.K.,
Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands, Mexico and Australia. Whenever the
Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an
expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a stagnant economy,
and below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary
by country, however.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1.800.ANALYSIS (262.5974)
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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