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For Immediate Release April 3, 2001
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
Decision Analyst's March Economic Index Showing Signals of Recession
Arlington, Texas – The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index for March shows
an economy in steep decline. Decision Analyst’s measurement of the U.S.
economy takes place the last 10 days of each month, and is based on an Internet
survey of several thousand households.
The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index peaked in the spring of 2000, declined
to a slightly lower level in the fall, and then dropped dramatically in the
first quarter of 2001, as shown below.
"The economy appears to be on the verge of a recession, if it is not
already in a recession," said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision
Analyst. "The steep downslope of the Economic Index over the last three
months indicates a very high risk of at least one or two quarters of negative
gross domestic product growth."
"The negative news from the stock markets is causing some consumers to
reign in their spending," Thomas stated. "Consumers say that the
level of business activity is falling, and corporate hiring is declining.
Future plans for major purchases (new car, new home, major vacation) are down
in March as well. Fears about losing one’s job are also increasing. All of
these negative signals—plus the speed at which they have
declined—point toward a recession in the U.S. economy."
The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index is based on an Internet survey of more
than 5,000 households balanced by gender, age and geography. The survey is
conducted over the Internet during the last ten days of each month, and then
the Index is immediately calculated from nine different economic measurements,
using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of current
U.S. economic activity, as seen through the eyes of consumers. Whenever the
Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 105, it signals an expanding
economy. An index in the 95 to 105 range suggests a stagnant economy, and an
index below 95 generally indicates economic contraction or recession.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1.800.ANALYSIS (262.5974)
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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