For Immediate Release December 7, 2001
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166

Dallas-Fort Worth—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index for November, based on a nationwide Internet survey conducted the last 10 days of November, indicates that U.S. economic activity held steady in November, after bouncing back during October from the lows triggered by the September 11 terrorist attacks. The U.S. Economic Index fell four points in September to 109, but rebounded to 112 in late October, and held at 112 through late November, as shown below.

U.S. consumers remain confident about the security of their jobs, and are reasonably confident about the state of the job market. Consumers are optimistic that stock market prices will rise in coming months, and their reported plans to buy high-ticket products within the next six months are trending up. Numbers on the inflation front are positive as well. These favorable signs, combined with low interest rates and low energy costs, continue to signal that the U.S. economy will begin to grow again by the first quarter of 2002.

Greatest Economic Threat: More Terrorist Activity

"The greatest threat to a general economic upturn remains the possibility of some other major terrorist event that would disrupt the normal flow of economic activity and diminish consumer confidence," said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. "Barring any additional shocks to the U.S. economy, we remain confident that an economic upturn is imminent, no later than the first quarter of 2002."

"Unemployment is likely to continue its upward trend throughout most of 2002, but unemployment is a lagging indicator. That is, unemployment tends to continue upwards after a recession has ended. The U.S. economy is diverse and resilient," said Thomas, "and will surprise the naysayers in 2002."

Canada Bounces Back

The Decision Analyst Economic Index for Canada indicates that the September 11 disaster impacted the Canadian economy just as it did the U.S. economy. However, unlike the U.S., Canada’s Index did not bounce back as quickly. The Economic Index for Canada stood at 108 in August, fell to 105 in September and to 103 in October. In November, however, the Index jumped to 109.

Rebound Underway In Europe

The United Kingdom was negatively impacted by the September 11 terrorist attacks in the U.S. Decision Analyst’s Economic Index for the U.K. fell from 122 in August to 103 in September, but bounced back to 109 in October, and 111 in November. The German Economic Index fell from 112 in August to 103 in September, and to 104 in October. However, in November the German Economic Index leaped to 111. The French Economic Index fell from 102 in August to 100 in September, and 104 in October. November stayed at about the same level (103).

"The September 11 tragedy had almost as much impact in Europe as in the U.S.," said Thomas, "but it appears that Europe will rebound quickly."

The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on an Internet survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. It is conducted in the U.S., Canada, the U.K., Germany, France, Italy, and Australia monthly. The survey is conducted over the Internet during the last ten days of each month, and the index is immediately calculated from nine different economic measurements, using a sophisticated econometric model.

The result is a snapshot of current U.S. economic activity, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy in the U.S. An index in the 100 to 110 range suggests a stagnant economy, and an index below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.

If you would like to be the first to receive the Decision Analyst Economic Index each month, please contact Cristi Allen by email to get on the advanced-release list.

For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1.800.ANALYSIS (262.5974)
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011

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