For Immediate Release June 5, 2001
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166

Arlington, Texas – The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index for May shows the economy continuing on the same "slow growth" or "stagnant" path in evidence since January. The U.S. economy is not weakening any further, but neither is it showing signs of a rebound. Decision Analyst’s measurement of the U.S. economy takes place the last 10 days of each month and is based on an Internet survey of several thousand households.

The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index peaked in the spring of 2000, declined to a slightly lower level in the fall, and then dropped dramatically to a lower level during the first five months of 2001, as shown below.

"The economy appeared to continue a pattern of very slow growth during May, with significant risks of sliding into a recession in coming months if the economy incurs any additional negative ‘shocks,’ such as rising energy prices, a major stock market sell-off, and/or dramatic consumer spending retrenchment," said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. "If the negative shocks do not occur, then the U.S. economy may very well be at the bottom of the trough, with a likelihood of economic rebound in the second half of the year—given the low interest rates and the coming tax cuts."

"Consumer plans for major future purchases (new home, new car, expensive vacation) weakened in May, a negative indicator, because consumer spending is such a large component of gross domestic product," Thomas stated. "Price inflation was a major concern among consumers in May, and appeared to be the primary cause of weakness in consumers’ spending plans."

"The Decision Analyst Economic Index revealed no major differences in economic activity across the U.S. The economic stagnation seems to be affecting all sections of the U.S." Thomas said.

The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index is based on an Internet survey of more than 5,000 households balanced by gender, age and geography. The survey is conducted over the Internet during the last ten days of each month, and the index is immediately calculated from nine different economic measurements, using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of current U.S. economic activity, as seen through the eyes of consumers. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An index in the 100 to 110 range suggests a stagnant economy, and an index below 100 generally indicates economic contraction or recession.

For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1.800.ANALYSIS (262.5974)
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011

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