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For Immediate Release August 6, 2001
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166

Arlington, Texas – The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index for July shows the economy ticking downward, and continuing on the same "stagnant" path in evidence since January. The U.S. economy weakened in July, compared to the previous three months. None of the tracking data hints at an upturn in the near future. Worse, the July results showed consumers’ confidence in the economy beginning to slip somewhat. Decision Analyst’s measurement of the U.S. economy takes place the last 10 days of each month and is based on an Internet survey of several thousand households.

The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index peaked in the spring of 2000, declined to a slightly lower level in the fall, and then dropped dramatically to a lower level during the first seven months of 2001, as shown below.

"The U.S. economy in July did take a turn for the worse, and appeared to continue its nagging pace of extremely slow growth. The weak July numbers suggest that any upturn this year will be in the fourth quarter at the earliest, not the third. The economy is on the cusp of negative Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers, if the July downtrend continues," said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst.

"The most ominous sign in July was a significant decline in consumers’ future plans to purchase major durable goods, such as new homes and new cars. The consumer’s willingness to spend in the face of bad news has been a barrier to recession in the U.S., because consumer spending is such a large part of the U.S. economy. If consumers finally relent and cut consumption expenditures, then this downturn could easily continue into 2002," Thomas stated.

"The Decision Analyst Economic Index revealed no major differences in economic activity across the U.S. The economic slowdown seems to be affecting all sections of the U.S." Thomas said.

The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index is based on an Internet survey of more than 5,000 households balanced by gender, age and geography. The survey is conducted over the Internet during the last ten days of each month, and the index is immediately calculated from nine different economic measurements, using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of current U.S. economic activity, as seen through the eyes of consumers. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An index in the 100 to 110 range suggests a stagnant economy, and an index below 100 generally indicates economic contraction or recession.

If you would like to be the first to receive the Decision Analyst Economic Index each month, please contact Cristi Allen by email to get on the advanced-release list.

For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1.800.ANALYSIS (262.5974)
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011

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