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For Immediate Release May 3, 2001
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166

Arlington, Texas – The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index for April shows the economy taking a small, tentative step upward at the end of April. Decision Analyst’s measurement of the U.S. economy takes place the last 10 days of each month, and is based on an Internet survey of several thousand households.

The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index peaked in the spring of 2000, declined to a slightly lower level in the fall, and then dropped dramatically in the first quarter of 2001, as shown below.

"The economy remains on the cusp of a recession, but the uptick of the Economic Index in April is a positive sign," said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. "The economy appears to be bottoming out, perhaps. The Economic Index has been relatively stable at around the 113 to 114 level for the past four months. The fact that the Index has "leveled off" in recent months might indicate that we are at the bottom of the economic trough. We’ll know for sure in another two or three months."

"Consumer plans for major future purchases (new home, car, expensive vacation) rebounded in April, a strong positive indicator, because consumer spending is such a large component of Gross Domestic Product," Thomas stated. "Consumers also said that the level of business activity where they work improved in April, another positive sign. Consumer concern about rising prices (inflation) was the major negative factor in April."

"The Decision Analyst Economic Index indicated that all geographic areas within the U.S. were doing reasonably well during April, except for continuing weakness in the Mid-Atlantic states," Thomas said.

The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index is based on an Internet survey of more than 5,000 households balanced by gender, age and geography. The survey is conducted over the Internet during the last ten days of each month, and then the Index is immediately calculated from nine different economic measurements, using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of current U.S. economic activity, as seen through the eyes of consumers. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An index in the 100 to 110 range suggests a stagnant economy, and an index below 100 generally indicates economic contraction or recession.

For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1.800.ANALYSIS (262.5974)
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011

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