You are here:
Home |
Research Services |
Advanced Analytics |
Conceptor® Volumetric Forecasting
Conceptor® Volumetric Forecasting
New products require special research skill and sensitivity to avoid
inadvertently killing a low-scoring but highly unique new product concept, and
to avoid the potential failure of high-scoring “me too” products.
Many new products and services that could possibly be successful are abandoned
before they are ever launched, or they are killed prematurely in test markets.
Some new products are introduced with great fanfare—and soon become
damaging and costly failures. Accurate forecasting of new products is essential
to a company’s growth and profitability. Product categories covered are:
-
Consumer packaged goods
-
Consumer durables
-
Over-the-counter (OCT) medicines
-
Ethical pharmaceuticals
-
Business-to-business (B2B) products
-
Many different services
Conceptor® Volumetric Forecasting Model
The Conceptor® volumetric forecasting model provides accurate and
comprehensive estimates of year-ones sales. Conceptor® incorporates the
following variables:
- Client Marketing Inputs. Detailed data about
distribution levels, strength of sales organization, packaging variables,
pricing, advertising gross rating points (GRPs), promotion plans, etc.
- Advertising. The SellingPower™ scores from
CopyTest® advertising effectiveness research or from
PackageTest® for non-advertised brands.
- Trial. Scores from our
ConceptTest™
system are fed into the Conceptor® model to predict the “trial”
curve.
- Repeat Purchase. The Repeat Purchase Potential™
score is calculated for the new product, based on purchase intent, product
uniqueness, and value scores from our Optima®
product testing system.
- Calibration. We calibrate the Conceptor® models
for each client company. Historical data from a client’s previous new
product introductions (past five years) are sought. Calibration of our models
helps ensure the most accurate forecasts possible.
The Conceptor® volumetric forecast is typically presented as
year-one retail depletions in units and dollars. Trial volume is reported
separately from repeat volume for short-cycle products. Conceptor® sales
forecasts are generally accurate within plus or minus 15%.
International Forecasts
A volumetric forecast can be prepared for multiple countries. To
ensure accuracy of each country’s forecast and take into account cultural
and economic differences, original research must be conducted in each country.
Additional Resources from Decision Analyst
If you would like more information on research for new product
development and/or volumetric forecasting, please contact
Jerry
W. Thomas
by email or call
1.800.ANALYSIS (262.5974).
Brochures
Related White Papers
|
