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Conceptor® Volumetric Forecasting
New products require special research skill and sensitivity to avoid inadvertently killing a low-scoring but highly unique new product concept, and to avoid the potential failure of high-scoring “me too” products. Many new products and services that could possibly be successful are abandoned before they are ever launched, or they are killed prematurely in test markets. Some new products are introduced with great fanfare—and soon become damaging and costly failures. Accurate forecasting of new products is essential to a company’s growth and profitability. Product categories covered are:
  • Consumer packaged goods
  • Consumer durables
  • Over-the-counter (OCT) medicines
  • Ethical pharmaceuticals
  • Business-to-business (B2B) products
  • Many different services

Conceptor® Volumetric Forecasting Model

The Conceptor® volumetric forecasting model provides accurate and comprehensive estimates of year-ones sales. Conceptor® incorporates the following variables:

  • Client Marketing Inputs. Detailed data about distribution levels, strength of sales organization, packaging variables, pricing, advertising gross rating points (GRPs), promotion plans, etc.
     
  • Advertising. The SellingPower™ scores from CopyTest® advertising effectiveness research or from PackageTest® for non-advertised brands.
     
  • Trial. Scores from our ConceptTest™ system are fed into the Conceptor® model to predict the “trial” curve.
     
  • Repeat Purchase. The Repeat Purchase Potential™ score is calculated for the new product, based on purchase intent, product uniqueness, and value scores from our Optima® product testing system.
     
  • Calibration. We calibrate the Conceptor® models for each client company. Historical data from a client’s previous new product introductions (past five years) are sought. Calibration of our models helps ensure the most accurate forecasts possible.

The Conceptor® volumetric forecast is typically presented as year-one retail depletions in units and dollars. Trial volume is reported separately from repeat volume for short-cycle products. Conceptor® sales forecasts are generally accurate within plus or minus 15%.

International Forecasts

A volumetric forecast can be prepared for multiple countries. To ensure accuracy of each country’s forecast and take into account cultural and economic differences, original research must be conducted in each country.

Additional Resources from Decision Analyst

If you would like more information on research for new product development and/or volumetric forecasting, please contact Jerry W. Thomas by email or call 1.800.ANALYSIS (262.5974).

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